After days in class, Tampa Bay schools already seeing enrollment drop

Tampa Bay Times | By Jeffrey S. Solochek | August 28, 2025

The news has prompted talks of short-term spending cuts, and longer-term overhauls.

School district leaders across the Tampa Bay region are reassessing their short- and long-term plans as they watch student enrollment fall.

Hillsborough County, which in recent years shuttered six under-capacity schools, had nearly 10,000 fewer students after two weeks of classes than it had at the same time last year. Officials would not say how that compared to their projections, but teacher union leaders said they were told to expect a dip of about 7,000.

Pinellas County school leaders anticipated their student population would decline by about 3,400 children, but saw a drop of about 3,650 after the first two weeks of classes. The decrease compounds a years-long slide as the county has experienced a dwindling birth rate with limited residential growth.

Pasco County’s counts were closest to being on target. Its schools experienced a net reduction of 787 students from a year ago, just 37 fewer than initial expectations. Chief of staff Kevin Shibley said the relative accuracy of the district’s plans should allow them to avoid any additional spending or personnel cuts.

The trend is one that’s playing out across Florida as growing numbers of families take advantage of the state’s expanding scholarship and voucher program that allows them to use state money for private and home schooling. It has touched large districts such as Miami-Dade County, which has reported a decline of about 13,000 students, and small ones including Bay County, which has seen its enrollment dip by about 500.

The decrease “does impact the budget,” said Pinellas superintendent Kevin Hendrick, who has cut several positions in anticipation of shrinking revenue.

District budgets — which are still being updated and finalized — depend on per-student funding. Lawmakers set the total amount per full-time equivalent this year at $9,130.

That comes out to more than $900,000 for every 100 students.

Short term, the effect can mean shifting teachers and students as schools reassess how many children showed up in comparison to how many were expected. It’s an annual shuffle of classrooms and schedules heightened by more dramatic decreases than in the past.

The implications could be greater over the long haul if the schools don’t rebound.

Hendrick noted for instance that his biggest concern amid all his district’s declines was that the kindergarten class came in about 400 children fewer than projected. Overall, the district counted 74,203 students in its traditional schools, down from 77,854 at the same time a year ago.

Looking ahead, Hendrick said, it quickly becomes clear that the district’s student body will contract.

That means it won’t need as many high school classrooms, for instance, as those kindergartners become the class of 2038. Hendrick said the district’s next round of strategic planning will include a deep look at the schools it has and how to most efficiently use its buildings.

Pasco superintendent John Legg had a similar outlook on future planning, but for different reasons.

Though Pasco’s enrollment is down, the county’s overall population of children is not. The issue is that many families, particularly at the elementary level, are choosing charters and other options rather than district schools.

Attracting those families into the traditional schools becomes key to sustainability, he said, noting that at the higher grade levels the decline is not happening. District high schools had about 770 more students than initially projected.

To get at that issue, school board members have said they expect to add more K-8 schools, which appear popular with families. They opened two K-8 schools this fall.

At the same time, the district has seen its population shift from west to east. So in addition to tackling interest in the primary grades, Legg said, “We’re going to be looking at the best use of our facilities.”

That, too, is a trend among school districts as they try to cope with the impact of vouchers. Broward County school leaders, for instance, this week began discussing the fate of 34 underused campuses.

District officials have asked lawmakers to create a stand-alone budget for vouchers and assign every student a unique identifier to make it easier to track the money flowing through the growing program.

“Until the state agrees to do that, we’re going to continue to have districts that are surprised,” as many have been with this year’s counts, said Pasco school board member Jessica Wright.

Last year, the Senate proposed such changes but the House did not agree. The idea is expected to arise again in the 2026 legislative session.